ENERGIJA MED NAMI / ENERGY AMONG US
Tomaž Orešič, energetski blog / energy blog

Published April 2nd 2012 on Energetika.net SEE

In 2010, South East Europe reported the biggest volume of hydroelectric production in the last 15 years. Then in 2011, it had to pay for this. Water levels in the region were historically low. More specifically, hydroelectric production in the last quarter was 52% below the 15-year average and 17% lower than the absolute minimum for the period.
After March 2011, a long dry period began, which continued well in 2012 and ultimately resulted in the fact that thermal power production in the period from March to December topped the year-on-year figure by as much as 12%. The situation also led to strong dependence of South East Europe, or the Balkan region, on hydrologic conditions on one hand, and on limited transmission capacities from central and western Europe on the other. This resulted in prices which were substantially above the EEX level.
Annual consumption in the region is about 280 TWh, and generation in hydro power plants accounts for 30% in the region’s fairly balanced generation mix. The rest of the electricity is generated in thermal and nuclear power plants, while renewable energy production is also increasing its share.
The fact that about 30% of electricity in the region is generated in hydro power plants is good news, as this is cost-effective production that gives additional flexibility to the overall generation mix. On the other hand, supply is unreliable in the event of serious droughts on the scale we have been experiencing in the aforementioned period since March 2011. To secure reliable supply in the region, new dependable (thermal) power plants as well as further development of the transmission network will be urgent, with all environmental restrictions in mind.
Limitations of the transmission network, and insufficient – at least in extreme cases – cross-border facilities for the import of electricity from central to South East Europe put an additional strain on the situation, both in terms of energy and price. In 2011, the region imported 10 TWh electricity more than the year before, with half of the imports made in the last two months of the year. As regards prices, in December the price in the region south of Hungary was as much as €25 above the German price, despite the fact that 2,000 MWh/h of power was on its way south.
In February 2012, on top of severe drought the region experienced empty reservoirs, heavy snowfall, low temperatures and increased consumption. It turned out once more that each country takes care of itself first, and closes its borders if necessary, disregarding the fact that these measures are contrary to the goals of the European energy policy. Therefore, by declaring force majeure, contracts were being terminated, export from some countries was blocked, and so were cross-border capacities that had already been allocated and paid for. It would have made sense to use all market possibilities first before resorting to such radical measures, and to invoke the force majeure clause as a last resort. Meanwhile, the drought continues and reservoirs remain empty, and will remain so for some time to come. Snow in the Balkans sublimated before it could be discharged into watercourses, and very high temperatures in the recent month are the sole reason that the resulting low consumption led to complete normalisation when it comes to prices. Weather forecasts suggest this situation could continue for some time, while heavy rains could even result in export towards central Europe. But the question is how the energy balance sheet turns out, and how strong the pressure is on import from central Europe during the overhaul of Nuclear Power Plant Krško in the second half of April, which will be followed by almost simultaneous overhauls of Nuclear Power Plant Kozloduy, Bulgaria, and Thermal Power Plant Gacko, Bosnia and Herzegovina, in May.
In 2011, electricity import to the region totalled 10 TWh, whereas the region as a whole had more or less maintained a balance the year before. It should also be noted that the absolute technical limit on electricity import to the region is about 20 TWh per year.
The urgent need for new investments in generation and transmission capacities in the region is evident. An upgrade and modernisation of transmission capacities will help improve not only the security of supply, but also, and especially, the efficiency of the regional market. Without the help of the EU or foreign capital, the energy industry in South East Europe will simply not keep afloat in the current economic situation and with the existing outlooks. Slovenia is inevitably dependent on the energy balance sheet of South East Europe, or the Balkan region – a fact made perfectly clear during the events of the recent months described above.

Tomaž Orešič

Objavljeno dne 2.aprila 2012 na energetskem portalu Energetika.net

Medtem ko je jugovzhodna evropska regija v letu 2010 beležila največjo hidroproizvodnjo v zadnjih 15-ih letih, je leta 2011 prišel pravi račun. V regiji smo bili priča zgodovinsko nizki hidrologiji, konkretneje: v zadnjem kvartalu je bila hidroproizvodnja za 52 % nižja od 15-letnega povprečja in 17 % nižja od absolutnega minimuma tega istega obdobja.
Po marcu 2011 se je pričelo dolgo sušno obdobje, ki se je vleklo še v leto 2012 in ki je ne nazadnje botrovalo dejstvu, da je bila termoproizvodnja v obdobju marec–december kar za 12 % višja od predhodnega leta.
Nadalje se je izpostavila velika odvisnost jugovzhodne evropske regije oz. Balkana od hidroloških razmer, na drugi strani pa od omejenih prenosnih kapacitet s srednje in zahodne Evrope. Posledica so bile znatno višje cene od nivoja EEX.
Naša regija ima približno 280 TWh letne porabe in dokaj primeren proizvodni miks s 30 % proizvodnje iz hidroelektrarn. Ostalo proizvodnjo predstavljajo termoelektrarne in nuklearke, povečuje pa se tudi delež nove obnovljive proizvodnje.
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Delo, 10.03.2012

Zanesljivost preskrbe Nujne so investicije v ekonomsko opravičljive projekte in konkurenčna proizvodnja

Te dni se spominjamo dveh pomembnih obletnic s področja energetike. Na eni strani uveljavitve tretje evropske energetske direktive, vključno z ustanovitvijo evropske agencije za sodelovanje energetskih regulatorjev v Ljubljani, na drugi strani pa tragičnih dogodkov v Fukušimi ter vsega, s čimer so vplivali na nadaljnji razvoj energetike.

Evropska energetska politika medtem še naprej išče pravo pot v zanesljivo, konkurenčno in trajnostno preskrbo z energijo ter se v teh finančno-gospodarsko nestabilnih razmerah sproti prilagaja motnjam in izzivom.

Kot morda najpomembnejše dejavnike zadnjega obdobja za našo preskrbo z energijo bi poudaril jedrsko nesrečo v Fukušimi in posledično nemški umik od jedrske energije, zgodovinsko najnižjo hidrologijo v zadnjem kvartalu prejšnjega leta ter vstop finančnih institucij in skladov na trg električne energije.

Premiki

Zadnje je za navadnega odjemalca povsem nepomembna sprememba. Pa vendar, vstop finančnih institucij v dejavnost veletrgovine z električno energijo je vnesel v to, do zdaj precej konservativno dejavnost nov moment v odnosu do tveganj in špekulacij. Doslej so v energetiki vladali osnovni tehnični parametri ter na tržni strani ponudba in povpraševanje. Z agresivnim vstopom finančnih institucij v sektor so bila ta razmerja porušena. Z enormnimi špekulativnimi vložki so razmere postale nestabilne in nepredvidljive, kar so s slabšimi poslovnimi rezultati občutili tudi v številnih večjih energetskih koncernih. Energetika temelji na tehničnih in naravnih zakonitostih, finančni akterji pa sledijo drugim zakonitostim in vrednotam.

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