Impact of the crisis in the SE European electricity sector
Written on 1 April 2009 by Tomaz Oresic(Speech by Tomaz Oresic at the EBRD and Energy Community Regional Energy Forum on March 31st in Sarajevo)
First of all, I would like to thank the organizers, the Energy Community Secretariat and the EBRD for organising such an excellent event and for giving us the opportunity to present our views on the regional energy issues we feel are currently most relevant.As Mr. Piebalgs emphasized, the importance of energy trading to the development of the energy market in south east Europe cannot be overestimated.
As has been said, the EFT Group is a market leader in energy trading in this region and we certainly share Mr. Piebalgs’ view. As far as regional investments in energy are concerned, over the last couple of years EFT has been active in this field as well. It is this aspect that I will focus on. Due to the growing economic crisis that has embraced the region in recent months we are now witnessing a new situation regarding investment in energy. Almost all SE European key economic indicators are being corrected downwards. This has already had a profound impact on the energy sector.
We can clearly establish two key effects of the current crisis:
1. Global fall-off in demand and price of commodities has lead to a considerable fall in demand, and thus consumption of energy in SEE;
2. The costs of debt financing in SEE has increased, and access to funds for new investments has been limited.
As a result, the attractiveness of new investments in power generation in the region has significantly decreased. At the same time the appeal of extending life time of existing, older power plants has increased. We are also witnessing a significant decrease of energy consumption from some of the biggest industrial consumers in the region. This has lead to the creation of temporary electricity surplus in some countries. Aluminium smelters in
The resulting distortion in energy balance is sending wrong signals regarding the need for new investments SE Europe power generation. Building new and replacing the existing, older power plants in the region is not only essential to achieving environmental goals, but also to enabling future growth of SE European economies.
Once the crisis is over and the consumption stabilizes, the absence of essential investments in power plants will rapidly drive the energy prices higher. This will have an extremely detrimental effect on the regional economy.Small and financially weaker power utilities in SEE are very vulnerable to the effects of the crisis. Their ability to invest in new projects is extremely limited. The more powerful western utilities on the other hand are extremely cautious and selective in the current climate. Only the projects with the highest value for the investors are considered, the consolidation process and organic growth is order of the day for most western utilities. This will further limit new investment in the region. The propensity to negatively portray the region in the influential Western press will certainly not help.The smaller regional utilities are not best equipped to absorb the present price volatility. The absence of clear market mechanisms and of the still omni-present subsidies for the majority of industrial and households consumers remains the key obstacle to new investment in regional energy production. We are also witnessing the absence of correlation between equipment costs for new investments and electricity price. Although the price of energy has collapsed, the EPC remains a strong sellers market. It is thus very hard to find attractive investment incentives in such circumstances.
This leaves us with the crucial question – who will invest in new power plant in the SE region in such circumstances?
Now is the time to ensure the region’s future inside the European Union. It is precisely at the time of crisis like this one that the multilateral European financial institutions, such as EBDR and European Investment Bank, need to send a strong signal to the region. The message of support for large, infrastructural energy projects in the region, and with it job and wealth creation, stability and further regional integration, must be unequivocal. While the role of the Energy Community is essential for the implementation of predictable, low-risk and market based business environment, the support of institution like EBDR and EIB gives the most important incentive for commercial financial institutions to follow. We would specifically propose that in the present circumstances the EBRD and the EIB work as hard as possible on increase their flexibility, which will best enable them to meet the challenges facing the region.
We hope that the supportive words from Mr.Piebalgs, Mr.Mirow and Mr.Neykov are steps in the right direction.
Tomaz Oresic
Poti energetike v času finančno-gospodarske krize
Written on 1 Marec 2009 by Tomaz OresicEnergetika velja za dejavnost, o kateri v številnih razpravah in komentarjih glede učinkov finančno-gospodarske krize doslej ni bilo veliko slišati. Na globalni ravni je bilo še največ izrečenega o rusko-ukrajinskem plinskem sporu, pri nas pa zlasti o cenah električne energije za gospodinjstva in seveda o plačah direktorjev. Realna podoba v panogi je mnogo resnejša in ravno v tem času zahteva temeljni strateški razmislek in odločitve o tem, v katero smer in kako naprej.
Izmed vseh gospodarskih panog deluje energetika kot ena bolj odpornih proti učinkom recesije, čeprav bodo v praksi v končni fazi posledice občutili prav vsi: proizvajalci, trgovci in prodajalci. Na njihovo poslovanje bo vplivala manjša poraba energije, predvsem pa se bodo učinki krize poznali pri obsegu in dinamiki investicij v nove proizvodne objekte.
Zadnja napoved Evropskega združenja za koordinacijo prenosa električne energije (UCTE) o zadostnosti elektroenergetskega sistema v državah UCTE do leta 2020, objavljena v začetku letošnjega januarja, sicer še ne kaže negativnih učinkov. Nasprotno, v primerjavi z lanskimi napovedmi, je letošnja še nekoliko bolj optimistična. Večja rast novih proizvodnih zmogljivosti od napovedane je predvidena pri plinskih elektrarnah in pri uporabi črnega premoga. Daleč največji delež v novih proizvodnih kapacitetah pa so pričakovano nove vetrne in plinske elektrarne.
Druga plat optimističnih napovedi pa je, da se podatki UCTE za januarsko objavo napovedi zbirajo septembra prejšnje leto. Ob sedanjem dogajanju smo namreč lahko upravičeno skeptični o vsebinski in terminski izvedbi vseh v scenariju upoštevanih novih investicij. Pričakovati je, da bodo kar nekaj projektov začasno opustili ali vsaj preložili, saj se posledice krize občutijo tudi pri financiranju energetskih infrastrukturnih projektov.
The depth of the discussions on electricity prices
Written on 9 December 2008 by Tomaz OresicIt is interesting to follow numerous discussions and confrontations on electricity prices. In most of the cases the subject of debates are however the prices for the households, which have been already debated in a more or less competent way in the previous years. The prices have been thus commented out of sight of theirs influence on inflation, out of sight of the joint profit of the Slovenian distribution companies, from the viewpoint of the responsibility to the state, as well as from their influence on the competition. Currently, the discussions are dealing with supposed discriminatory price models for households.
We could easily debate much deeper about each of these viewpoints, however we could also simplify with two common denominators. The first one is that the existence of the energy legislation and consequently the status of household costumers is often overlooked. The second one is the viewpoint of the commodity called electricity in itself.
The influence of the energy legislation
Based on the European energy legislation the electricity prices are the market based category after July 1st 2007 and are no longer subject of governmental pricing or regulation. Although that is to the majority a very well known fact, it is worth analysing the important circumstances in more detailed way. It is no secret that the prices for households in Slovenia are below the market prices and that Slovenian energy utilities (HSE, GEN Energija and distribution companies) are making (opportunity) losses in that market segment. The latter could theoretically therefore increase the prices up to the market level, however they have obviously decided for the gradual moving towards full market mechanism over several years. Such moving is despite the current apparent ‘merciless’ price increases still in favour of the Slovenian household customers, with such case being far from an exception on the European electricity market. Numerous countries, especially the ones in the southeast Europe, have established different price regimes, which despite some conflict with the competition and energy legislation allow non-market based price regimes in favour of their households. However different countries have different practises, mostly based on the situation with the generation capacities in the country as well as on the supply & demand balance on the national market.
Necessity of the new investments
We are facing important strategic challenges, especially in the southeast European countries including Slovenia. Whilst France is distributing its nuclear rent from its 79 nuclear power plants and general positive energy balance to all household customers in the form of lower prices, we have to deal with increasing dependency on imports. And this increasing dependency means that we have to invest in new transmission and generation capacities. That’s the only solution thus some general and ignorant inculpation on account of supposed profitable energy utilities are not making a big favour. Continue »
Soil Fertility and Competition on Slovenian Electricity Market
Written on 9 Julij 2008 by Tomaz OresicWe are witnessing an irrepressible and unpredictable rise of energy prices. The rise in the price of oil has set off a chain reaction leading to the rise in the price of gas, and emission costs. These have driven the prices of electricity to unprecedented levels.What can the energy companies do to alleviate some of the hardship for the customers in Slovenia? The household consumers are hopeful that the subsidised pricing of electricity in Slovenia will last as long as possible, blissfully unaware of the long-term negative effects of such a policy. After all, why would one want to do away with their 50% electricity discount!?
On the one hand low electricity prices compared to other energy sources stimulate inefficient use of electricity. On the other, they weaken the Slovenian power utilities by reducing their financial strength and ability to invest in new generating capacities. The latter effects is particularly important, as investment in new generating capacity is definitely the only way to securing the long-term supply of electricity in the country at competitive rates.We should thus ask ourselves, which is the right way and what can the key stakeholders contribute? The Financial Times ran an excellent interview with the Spanish Prime Minister Mr.Zapatero last month, in which he emphasized the need for a clear long-term energy strategy and his full support for further harnessing the use of the renewable sources of energy.
Furthermore, whatever one may think of the French energy policy and the supposed monopoly on which it is based, the long-term approach of their energy strategy merits respect. France has managed to successfully squeeze the producer’s rent and enable the customer enjoy the lower retail prices from the resulting surplus. The move is even more commendable considering the fact that France’s nuclear generation costs are way under the EU market price. Instead of allowing its citizens more leeway, the government of France could easily have offered EdF the opportunity to capture the sc. nuclear rent.
There may be legitimate doubts as to what such regulation means for competition and for the interested new market entrants on the French national electricity market. Their argument is clear and is, based on David Ricardo’s scarcity rent theory from the late 19th century. The theory sought to explain how the farmers producing from higher quality land in terms of soil fertility benefited from rent. The French have decided that EdF ought not to maximise its profits by capturing the nuclear rent, but that the customers ought to enjoy the benefits of guaranteed lower retail prices from this rent. Even to the prejudice of real competition and of the entry of new market participants. The French situation is, of - course, a piece of wishful thinking for the majority of European countries. None of the member states can compete with France’s electricity surpluses and the long term average cost of generation from its 58 nuclear power stations. On the other hand the model applied in France can provide us with a blue-print or at least useful guide for our own strategic discussions on the optimal distribution of nuclear rent in Slovenia. Moreover, it can lead us to an answer to one of the more important questions facing us today, namely who and with which sources of funds will build new generation capacities in the Slovenia? Not to mention the ambitious plans for the expansion towards SEE market.
In considering the question of generating the necessary capital for investment in new generating capacities, a useful hint is provided in models applied by our southern neighbours. Starting from the premise of maintaining government ownership control of its energy sector, Croatia and its power utility HEP had to overcome the problem of raising he necessary funds without opening up the sector to private investors. as with most other state run power utilities in the region, HEP’s inherent problem lay in low energy prices dictated by the government It would only be able to fund its 2,1 bn investment programme by the substantial rise in retail electricity price, always a very unpopular move. Nearer to market levels, redefined energy prices in Croatia allow HEP the necessary increase in income to finance the necessary investments. The existence of state owned incumbent utilities, with extensive investment needs and with non-market principles in the supply part of the value chain means that the political dilemma Croatia faced is present in most SE European countries. As a part-way solution, the regional governments are trying to identify what kind of investments ought to be kept under state control and what kind of new investments ought to be financed through joint venture initiatives with the private sector.Croatia has managed to pass a 20% rise in retail electricity price. At first glance this seems a lot. This however is less than a half of the needed price increase for the Slovenian households, if we are to embrace market principles in this segment as well. And forget not, only the transparent and clear market principles can lead us toward normal, competitive environment where sustainable and secure electricity supply will never be brought into question.
Tomaz Oresic
Plodnost zemlje in konkurenca na trgu električne energije
Written on 7 Julij 2008 by Tomaz OresicSmo v obdobju nezadržne in nepredvidljive rasti cen energentov. Cena nafte, posledično cena plina in cene emisijskih kuponov poganjajo tudi cene električne energije v višave.
Kaj lahko pri tem naredijo energetska podjetja in kaj odjemalci? Gospodinjski odjemalci lahko le upajo, da bo čas ’subvencionirane’ prodaje električne energije trajal čim dlje, nezavedajoč se dolgoročnih škodljivih učinkov takšnega ravnanja. Nenazadnje, zakaj bi silil v plačevanje dražje električne energije, če mi je omogočen 50% popust!? Na eni strani se zaradi primerljivo nizke cene električne energije napram ostalim energentom še dodatno vzpodbuja neracionalna raba električne energije, na drugi strani pa se s slabljenjem slovenskih državnih proizvodnih energetskih podjetij zmanjšuje njihova finančna moč in zmožnost investiranja v nove kapacitete. In slednje je zanesljivo edina pot v dolgoročno zanesljivo in konkurenčno oskrbo države z električno energijo.
Potrebno se je vprašati, kaj je tista prava pot in lahko pri tem prispevajo ključni deležniki? Pred mesecem dni smo lahko v Financial Timesu prebrali izjemen intervju s španskim predsednikom vlade Zapaterom, ko je ta govoril o njihovi dolgoročni energetski strategiji in predvsem o absolutni (še zdaleč ne samo načelni) podpori izrabi obnovljivih virov. Nadalje, karkoli si mislimo o Francoski energetski politiki, o njihovem domnevnem monopolu na trgu električne energije, jih pa prav na področju dolgoročne energetske politike in zaščite odjemalcev lahko imamo za vzor. Ne skrivajo dejstva, da je njihova proizvodnja iz nuklearnih elektrarn daleč najcenejša in lastniku, to je državnemu EdF-u omogoča upravljanje s t.i. nuklearno rento. Da pa bi bila ta državna nuklearna renta kar najbolj učinkovito uporabljena, so se na transparenten način odločili prenesti to rento v različnih deležih med vse skupine odjemalcev. To pomeni, za gospodinjstva toliko, za male poslovne odjemalce toliko itn. Seveda lahko imamo upravičeno pomisleke, kaj to pomeni za razvoj konkurence in za vstop novih ponudnikov na trg električne energije. Francoski argument je jasen, po vzoru t.i. ’scarcity rent’ po ekonomistu Davidu Ricardu s konca 19.stoletja, ko je ta razpravljal ustvarjanju rent glede na različno plodnost obdelovalne zemlje, so se Francozi pač odločili, da EdF ne bo maksimiral svojega dobička in da bo tudi za ceno omejevanja vstopa novih ponudnikov del tega po preglednem modelu razporejen po določenem ključu med odjemalce.
Seveda je Francoska situacija za veliko večino Evropskih držav lahko le pobožna želja, saj praktično nihče ne more konkurirati njihovim viškom električne energije in nizki povprečni proizvodni ceni iz 58 jedrskih elektrarn. Jih pa lahko imamo za vzor, ko odpremo temo o strateškem vidiku delitve nuklearne rente in o tem, kdo in s kakšnimi viri bo gradil elektrarne v Sloveniji, da ne govorimo o tako opevani širitvi na trge JV Evrope.Če nadaljujemo z viri za prepotrebne nove investicije, se tokrat lahko zgledujemo tudi po naših južnih sosedih. Po vzoru številnih drugih držav, v katerih želi država strateško ohranit kontrolo nad oskrbo države, so si postavili enostavno vprašanje: ali bomo prepotrebne nove objekte gradili sami (HEP) ali pa bomo prisiljeni energetski sektor prepustiti novim investitorjem in strateškim partnerjem? Odgovor so sicer začinili z neprijetno resnico, da bo namreč HEP sposoben uresničiti 2,1Mrd evrov težek investicijski načrt le ob znatnem povišanju prodajnih cen električne energije. S tem, ko bi se cene približale tržnim, bi HEP-u zagotovili vire za nove naložbe. Slednja dilema je sicer zelo aktualna v pretežno JV Evropskih državah, v katerih imamo opravka z državnimi energetskimi podjetji, z velikimi investicijskimi potrebami in z netržnimi principi pri prodaji električne energije. So pa države pri tem začele ločevati, v katerih investicijah je smiselno ohranjati nadzor države (praviloma jedrska in vodna energija) in v katerih je investicije in s tem povezana tveganja smiselno prepustiti drugim akterjem.
In tako so na Hrvaškem potrdili v povprečju 20% povišanje cen električne energije, kar se sicer zdi veliko, je pa to za primerjavo manj kot polovica potrebne podražitve za Slovenska gospodinjstva, če bi tudi pri nas želeli počasi prilesti na tržne temelje. In zgolj in samo pregledni tržni principi so tisti, ki nas lahko dolgoročno popeljejo normalno konkurenčno okolje, ob zagotovljenem trajnostnem razvoju in zanesljivi oskrbi z električno energijo.
Tomaz Oresic
Presentation on DSO Unbundling from Retail Companies
Written on 24 Marec 2008 by Tomaz OresicTransmission & Distribution Europe 2008, Amsterdam 11th-13th
Unbundling DSO, Presentation Amsterdam, March 2008
Tomaz Oresic
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Investicije in konkurenčnost
Written on 24 Marec 2008 by Tomaz OresicPrezentacija na temo investicij in konkurenčnosti na En.konferenci 008, 6.marca 2008 v Ljubljani
En.Konferenca 008, Presentation Investments & Competition
Tomaz Oresic
The promised land of South-Eastern Europe!?
Written on 14 Februar 2008 by Tomaz OresicWhen browsing through significant European energy utilities’ strategic market orientation, even by the largest and most powerful ones, we can notice one common point to all of them: expansion to the of South-East European markets. The same holds true for the majority of the Slovenian most important energy companies, like HSE; Istrabenz Gorenje Energetski Sistemi (IGES) and Petrol. What is so attractive in these markets? Does energy and resources’ direction into these markets really assure the desired future profits?
The South-Eastern Europe, which, in terms of energy, comprises the territory expanding from Slovenia to Bulgaria and from Hungary to Greece, is the region believed to be severely lacking energy, with consecutively highest energy prices in Europe. The state-owned utilities prevail in the region, only for a few exceptions in Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece and Macedonia. Except from some energy surpluses in Bosnia, Romania and Bulgaria, all other countries are suffering from energy shortages and therefore depend upon imports. In the last decade only Greece has considerably increased its production capacities (2.400 MW), Hungary, Slovenia and Croatia only a bit, whereas the installed power of energy facilities in Romania and Bulgaria has actually decreased.
There presently are certain investment intentions and activities planned, which are, due to different reasons, often very distant in terms of time. As early as in 2008 the common energy deficit in the region will reach ca. 12 TWh, which is comparable to the whole amount of Slovenian consumption. The situation is most probably not to improve in the next years, on the contrary, with electricity consumption increase and facilities’ replacement needed, we can only expect a few of more important new facilities to be built. Continue »
Podražitev elektrike in nesmiselni spremljajoči komentarji
Written on 24 November 2007 by Tomaz OresicOb dolgo pričakovani in prepotrebni podražitvi električne energije za gospodinjstva se je v številnih komentarjih raznih poklicanih predstavnikov strokovnih institucij in posameznih novinarskih oz. blogovskih avtorjev nabralo toliko nesmislov, da je več kot potrebna dodatna beseda.
Začel bom pri UMAR-ju, ki je že pred leti slovel kot avtor najbolj nesmiselnih argumentov proti podražitvam električne energije. Danes ni nič drugače in ponavlja isto retoriko v stilu: ‘podražitve so nepotrebne, ker imajo elektro podjetja dobiček’. Običajno so tovrstne izjave še podkrepljene s številkami o vplivu cen električne energije na višino inflacije itd. Ko se iz tedna v teden dražijo naftni derivati, ko se dražijo jeklo, baker, aluminij, koruza, se ta ista institucija začuda še ni oglasila. Prav tako ni na tako absurden način komentirala dobičkov Petrola, Taluma, SIJ-a in Panvite. Razloge za takšno ravnanje in površnost bi strnil v dve poglavitni skupni.
Kot prvo gre za popolno nepoznavanje zakonitosti trga električne energije, vplivov na rast cen na veleprodajnem trgu, širšega pogleda na trge okoli nas in nenazadnje energetske zakonodaje. Cene, kot so bile pred podražitvijo, kot tudi cene po podražitvi, so še zelo daleč od tržnih in to je žal edina resnica. Lahko smo še kar zadovoljni, da Evropska Komisija pri nespoštovanju energetske in konkurenčne zakonodaje ni tako dosledna, kadar gre za netržne modele subvencioniranja gospodinjskih odjemalcev električne energije. Slovenija namreč ni edina evropska država, v kateri se na nek transparentno netransparenten način poskuša omiliti prehod na popolnoma odprt trg pri oskrbi gospodinjstev. Je pa Slovenija ena redkih držav EU, ki je v zadnjem letu pristala v skupini držav z najdražjo električno energijo na veleprodajnem trgu, pri čemer je bilo še leta 2006 prav nasprotno. In ob tem bo v naslednjih letih samo še slabše. Imam občutek, da prav nikogar ne zanima, ali sploh imamo električno energijo v Sloveniji, važno je le, da je ta poceni. Problem pa je ta, da kadar elektrike ni, je ta najdražja. In to bi zelo poenostavljeno povedano lahko tudi povzel kot razlog za dramatično spremembo cenovnega nivoja v Sloveniji. Nikogar prav ne gane, da Slovenija uvozi 25% elektrike za lastne potrebe in da bo prvi nov resen objekt šele težko pričakovan 6. blok v Termoelektrarni Šoštanj tam nekje okoli 2014. Še vedno se marsikdo skriva za planinskimi orli, ko bi bilo potrebno enotno podpreti gradnjo vetrnih elektrarn. Prav tako pa v vseh ’strokovnih’ komentarjih, ko udarjajo po dobaviteljih električne energije, pogrešam nesporno ugotovitev, da trenutna in tudi nova cene električne energije, vzpodbuja nadaljnjo neracionalno rabo v gospodinjstvih. Električna energija je pač daleč pod tržno ceno in je kratkoročno v prednosti pred drugimi energenti, zaradi česar se še nadalje stopnjuje pritisk na potrebo po dodatnem uvozu dražje električne energije. Raje ne omenjam škodljivih posledic tovrstnih netržnih odnosov na emisije CO2, na naš trajnostni razvoj in na konkurenčnost gospodarstva. Prednost se daje demagoški retoriki o dobičkih oligopolistov in o planinskih orlih ter ob tem vzpodbuja razsipno ravnanje ljudi z električno energijo. Continue »
Nova energetska zakonodaja, cene in profitabilnost
Written on 8 November 2007 by Tomaz OresicVse več je različnih mnenj o predlogu tretje evropske energetske zakonodaje, ki bo v naslednjem obdobju bistveno vplivala na prihodnjo organiziranost energetskega sektorja. Ne bi posebej izpostavljal dobro znanih ciljev t.i. tretjega energetskega paketa, v zvezi s katerim smo že zdaj priča precej različnim razpravam. Med ostalim naj bi nova direktiva vnesla pravo konkurenco vzdolž celotne vrednostne verige. Velika integrirana podjetja in posamezne države so se postavile v močno opozicijo predlogu, medtem ko pravi reformisti trdijo, da Komisija s predlogom ni šla dovolj daleč.
Predlagan ukrep lastniške ločitve oz. ownership unbundlinga še zdaleč ni čarobna palica za odpravo vseh težav, katere so ob predstavitvi predloga izpostavili vodilni Evropske Komisije. Cilji predloga so jasni in bi jih verjetno prav vsi z lahkoto podprli. Sama izvedba pa pušča še odprta vprašanja, ki se jih bo gotovo treba temeljiteje lotiti v času obravnave in opredeljevanja. Pred uveljavitvijo takšne direktive, kot je predlagana danes, bi bila po mojem potrebna učinkovita integracija nacionalnih trgov in močnejše sodelovanje tako TSO-jev kot tudi nacionalnih regulatornih agencij. Ownership unbundling bi sicer naj omogočil enakovredne tržne razmere za vse zainteresirane, vendar je vsaj v naši regiji trenutna akutna problematika in fokus povsem nekje drugje, o čemer bom več govoril v nadaljevanju.
